Flagler County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 83th
Flagler County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 82.8, 83th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $42M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Flagler County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 82.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 83rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Flagler County's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $19M in expected annual loss and about 0.27 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $873K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.32 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $42M in expected annual loss for a population of 115K.
Beyond physical exposure, Flagler County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Flagler County has received 38 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 22 for hurricane events and 4 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton (hurricane), declared in October 2024.
Among 67 Florida counties, Flagler County ranks #37 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | High | 0.27 / yr | $19M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $873K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.32 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.25 / yr | $16M |
| Lightning | Medium | 68.46 / yr | $522K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.46 / yr | $801K |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 1.36 / yr | $790K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.12 / yr | $361K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $123K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $200 |
| Drought | Very Low | 14.72 / yr | $12K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 2.67 / yr | $181K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.07 / yr | $17K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Flagler County has received 38 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Hurricane Milton in October 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (22), Tropical Storm (4), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| August 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| August 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| December 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| November 2022 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Ian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 38 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Flagler County?
Flagler County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 82.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 83th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Flagler County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (High, $19M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $873K EAL), Tornado (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Flagler County compare to other Florida counties?
Flagler County ranks #37 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Flagler County had?
FEMA records 38 federal disaster declarations for Flagler County since 1977, most often 22 for hurricane events and 4 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton, declared in October 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Flagler County's $42M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.