St. Johns County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 88th
St. Johns County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 87.5, 88th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $97M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates St. Johns County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 87.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 88th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $23M in expected annual loss and about 0.28 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 69.47 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $51M in expected annual loss and about 1.54 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $97M in expected annual loss for a population of 273K.
Beyond physical exposure, St. Johns County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: St. Johns County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 21 for hurricane events and 4 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton (hurricane), declared in October 2024.
Among 67 Florida counties, St. Johns County ranks #36 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | High | 0.28 / yr | $23M |
| Lightning | High | 69.47 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.54 / yr | $51M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Coastal Flood | High | 2.92 / yr | $8M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.42 / yr | $8M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 3.75 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $552K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.96 / yr | $574K |
| Drought | Low | 14.58 / yr | $53K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $156 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 2.86 / yr | $288K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.81 / yr | $30K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
St. Johns County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Hurricane Milton in October 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (21), Tropical Storm (4), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| August 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| August 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| December 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| November 2022 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Ian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 34 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for St. Johns County?
St. Johns County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 87.5 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 88th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in St. Johns County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (High, $23M EAL), Lightning (High, $2M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $51M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does St. Johns County compare to other Florida counties?
St. Johns County ranks #36 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has St. Johns County had?
FEMA records 34 federal disaster declarations for St. Johns County since 1968, most often 21 for hurricane events and 4 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton, declared in October 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. St. Johns County's $97M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.