Hernando County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 88th
Hernando County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 88.0, 88th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $60M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Hernando County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 88.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 88th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Hernando County's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $25M in expected annual loss and about 0.27 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 93.02 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.57 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $60M in expected annual loss for a population of 194K.
Beyond physical exposure, Hernando County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Hernando County has received 40 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 20 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton (hurricane), declared in October 2024.
Among 67 Florida counties, Hernando County ranks #34 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | High | 0.27 / yr | $25M |
| Lightning | High | 93.02 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | High | 0.57 / yr | $7M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $870K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.89 / yr | $23M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.81 / yr | $1M |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 3.69 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.00 / yr | $775K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.38 / yr | $456K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $396 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $65K |
| Drought | Very Low | 16.77 / yr | $3K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.98 / yr | $32K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Hernando County has received 40 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Hurricane Milton in October 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (20), Severe Storm (6), Tropical Storm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| August 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| August 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| December 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| November 2022 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
Showing the 10 most recent of 40 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Hernando County?
Hernando County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 88.0 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 88th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Hernando County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (High, $25M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Tornado (High, $7M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Hernando County compare to other Florida counties?
Hernando County ranks #34 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Hernando County had?
FEMA records 40 federal disaster declarations for Hernando County since 1968, most often 20 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton, declared in October 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Hernando County's $60M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.