Santa Rosa County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 89th
Santa Rosa County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 89.0, 89th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $101M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Santa Rosa County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 89.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 89th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $61M in expected annual loss and about 0.25 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 85.08 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 0.79 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $101M in expected annual loss for a population of 188K.
Beyond physical exposure, Santa Rosa County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Santa Rosa County has received 43 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 24 for hurricane events and 7 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene (hurricane), declared in September 2024.
Among 67 Florida counties, Santa Rosa County ranks #32 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | High | 0.25 / yr | $61M |
| Lightning | High | 85.08 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.79 / yr | $9M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 9.01 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $608K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.61 / yr | $20M |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 3.76 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.70 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $378K |
| Drought | Low | 13.96 / yr | $127K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 0.56 / yr | $54K |
| Hail | Low | 1.20 / yr | $211K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $495 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.80 / yr | $371K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $25K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Santa Rosa County has received 43 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Hurricane Helene in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (24), Severe Storm (7), Flood (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| June 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Ian |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Fred |
| September 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sally |
| September 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sally |
Showing the 10 most recent of 43 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Santa Rosa County?
Santa Rosa County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 89.0 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 89th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Santa Rosa County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (High, $61M EAL), Lightning (High, $3M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $9M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Santa Rosa County compare to other Florida counties?
Santa Rosa County ranks #32 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Santa Rosa County had?
FEMA records 43 federal disaster declarations for Santa Rosa County since 1970, most often 24 for hurricane events and 7 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Santa Rosa County's $101M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.