Alachua County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 90th
Alachua County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 90.3, 90th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $90M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Alachua County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 90.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 90th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Alachua County's expected losses come from lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 84.43 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $34M in expected annual loss and about 0.22 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $90M in expected annual loss for a population of 278K.
Beyond physical exposure, Alachua County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Alachua County has received 35 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including 17 for hurricane events and 5 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton (hurricane), declared in October 2024.
Among 67 Florida counties, Alachua County ranks #30 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | Very High | 84.43 / yr | $3M |
| Hurricane | High | 0.22 / yr | $34M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | High | 0.52 / yr | $8M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.21 / yr | $35M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 3.30 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.99 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $649K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.84 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Low | 19.95 / yr | $77K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $474 |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.79 / yr | $65K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $10K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Alachua County has received 35 federal disaster declarations since 1993, most recently Hurricane Milton in October 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (17), Tropical Storm (5), Fire (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| August 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| August 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| December 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| November 2022 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
Showing the 10 most recent of 35 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Alachua County?
Alachua County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 90.3 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 90th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Alachua County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (Very High, $3M EAL), Hurricane (High, $34M EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Alachua County compare to other Florida counties?
Alachua County ranks #30 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Alachua County had?
FEMA records 35 federal disaster declarations for Alachua County since 1993, most often 17 for hurricane events and 5 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton, declared in October 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Alachua County's $90M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.