Clay County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 81th
Clay County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 81.1, 81th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $57M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Clay County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 81.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 81st national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Clay County's expected losses come from lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 80.36 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 0.22 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $35M in expected annual loss and about 0.64 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $57M in expected annual loss for a population of 218K.
Beyond physical exposure, Clay County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Clay County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1992, including 18 for hurricane events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Railroad Complex Fire (fire), declared in April 2026.
Among 67 Florida counties, Clay County ranks #39 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 80.36 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.22 / yr | $9M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.64 / yr | $35M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.36 / yr | $6M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $716K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 3.73 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $764K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 0.90 / yr | $464K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.07 / yr | $406K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $316 |
| Drought | Very Low | 16.76 / yr | $3K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 2.42 / yr | $206K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $8K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.01 / yr | $21K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Clay County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1992, most recently Railroad Complex Fire in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (18), Severe Storm (8), Fire (6).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Fire | Railroad Complex Fire |
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| August 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| August 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| December 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| November 2022 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
Showing the 10 most recent of 39 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Clay County?
Clay County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 81.1 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 81th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Clay County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $2M EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $9M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $35M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Clay County compare to other Florida counties?
Clay County ranks #39 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Clay County had?
FEMA records 39 federal disaster declarations for Clay County since 1992, most often 18 for hurricane events and 8 for severe storm events. The most recent was Railroad Complex Fire, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Clay County's $57M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.