Monroe County, Florida Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · FL
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 92th
Monroe County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 91.6, 92th national percentile), driven primarily by coastal flood and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $93M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Monroe County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 91.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 92nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Monroe County's expected losses come from coastal flood (seawater inundation from storm surge, high tides, and rising sea levels) at Very High risk — $21M in expected annual loss and about 2.28 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $65M in expected annual loss and about 0.29 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $906K in expected annual loss and about 101.34 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $93M in expected annual loss for a population of 82K.
Beyond physical exposure, Monroe County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Monroe County has received 47 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 26 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton (hurricane), declared in October 2024.
Among 67 Florida counties, Monroe County ranks #28 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Coastal Flood | Very High | 2.28 / yr | $21M |
| Hurricane | High | 0.29 / yr | $65M |
| Lightning | High | 101.34 / yr | $906K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.14 / yr | $668K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $85K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.54 / yr | $5M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.59 / yr | $284K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 1.08 / yr | $338K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $81 |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.43 / yr | $52K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.02 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 5.68 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Monroe County has received 47 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Hurricane Milton in October 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (26), Severe Storm (6), Fire (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| October 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| September 2022 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Ian |
| July 2021 | Severe Storm | Tropical Storm Elsa |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
Showing the 10 most recent of 47 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Monroe County?
Monroe County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 91.6 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 92th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Monroe County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Coastal Flood (Very High, $21M EAL), Hurricane (High, $65M EAL), Lightning (High, $906K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Monroe County compare to other Florida counties?
Monroe County ranks #28 of 67 Florida counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Monroe County had?
FEMA records 47 federal disaster declarations for Monroe County since 1965, most often 26 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Milton, declared in October 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Monroe County's $93M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.