Saline County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 78th
Saline County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 77.6, 78th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $41M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Saline County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 77.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 78th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Saline County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.17 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 18.47 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $41M in expected annual loss for a population of 123K.
Beyond physical exposure, Saline County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Saline County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 9 for severe storm events and 4 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Saline County ranks #14 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.17 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 18.47 / yr | $4M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $5M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.56 / yr | $7M |
| Hail | Medium | 5.40 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 63.82 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 4.79 / yr | $244K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.07 / yr | $13K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.11 / yr | $17M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.57 / yr | $957K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $101K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $144K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.00 / yr | $973K |
| Drought | Very Low | 9.66 / yr | $15K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Saline County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Severe Ice Storm (4), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2013 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Saline County?
Saline County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 77.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 78th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Saline County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $4M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Saline County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Saline County ranks #14 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Saline County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Saline County since 1973, most often 9 for severe storm events and 4 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Saline County's $41M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.