Pope County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 78th
Pope County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 77.8, 78th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $39M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Pope County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 77.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 78th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.37 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $11M in expected annual loss and about 0.58 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 15.99 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $39M in expected annual loss for a population of 63K.
Beyond physical exposure, Pope County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Pope County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 7 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Pope County ranks #13 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.37 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | High | 0.58 / yr | $11M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 15.99 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.50 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 6.79 / yr | $203K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.54 / yr | $17M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $214K |
| Lightning | Medium | 60.50 / yr | $520K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.00 / yr | $5K |
| Hail | Low | 5.33 / yr | $352K |
| Drought | Low | 9.58 / yr | $168K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.16 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $39K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Pope County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Flood (3), Hurricane (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pope County?
Pope County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 77.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 78th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Pope County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Tornado (High, $11M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Pope County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Pope County ranks #13 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Pope County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Pope County since 1968, most often 7 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pope County's $39M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.