Washington County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 92th
Washington County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 92.3, 92th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $130M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Washington County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 92.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 92nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Washington County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 1.91 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $47M in expected annual loss and about 9.42 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 10.63 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $130M in expected annual loss for a population of 246K.
Beyond physical exposure, Washington County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Washington County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 8 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Washington County ranks #2 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.91 / yr | $9M |
| Heat Wave | High | 9.42 / yr | $47M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 10.63 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | High | 0.81 / yr | $14M |
| Hail | High | 7.33 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | High | 58.42 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.71 / yr | $42M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.01 / yr | $27K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.79 / yr | $5M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.89 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $124K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 13.15 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Washington County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Flood (4), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
| February 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Washington County?
Washington County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 92.3 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 92th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Washington County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $9M EAL), Heat Wave (High, $47M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Washington County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Washington County ranks #2 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Washington County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Washington County since 1969, most often 8 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Washington County's $130M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.