Lonoke County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 75th
Lonoke County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 75.1, 75th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $41M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lonoke County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 75.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 75th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.15 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $41M in expected annual loss for a population of 74K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lonoke County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Lonoke County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 10 for severe storm events and 6 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Lonoke County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.15 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $10M |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.01 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.65 / yr | $7M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 18.47 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Low | 4.66 / yr | $717K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.96 / yr | $15M |
| Lightning | Medium | 59.43 / yr | $537K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 5.00 / yr | $132K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $116K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $63K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.00 / yr | $932K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.23 / yr | $805 |
| Drought | Low | 10.68 / yr | $79K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lonoke County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Tornado (6), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| November 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2013 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 29 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lonoke County?
Lonoke County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 75.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 75th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lonoke County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $10M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lonoke County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Lonoke County ranks #15 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lonoke County had?
FEMA records 29 federal disaster declarations for Lonoke County since 1968, most often 10 for severe storm events and 6 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lonoke County's $41M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.