St. Francis County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 75th
St. Francis County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 74.7, 75th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $19M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in St. Francis County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 74.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 75th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of St. Francis County's expected losses come from tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 0.45 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $457K in expected annual loss and about 1.15 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $19M in expected annual loss for a population of 23K.
Beyond physical exposure, St. Francis County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: St. Francis County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 7 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, St. Francis County ranks #16 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | High | 0.45 / yr | $9M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.15 / yr | $457K |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.69 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 22.84 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Medium | 8.02 / yr | $625K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.35 / yr | $1K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.63 / yr | $599K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $46K |
| Lightning | Low | 59.25 / yr | $121K |
| Hail | Low | 3.07 / yr | $105K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.64 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 5.42 / yr | $27K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
St. Francis County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
| December 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for St. Francis County?
St. Francis County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 74.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 75th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in St. Francis County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (High, $9M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $3M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $457K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does St. Francis County compare to other Arkansas counties?
St. Francis County ranks #16 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has St. Francis County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for St. Francis County since 1969, most often 7 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. St. Francis County's $19M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.