Greene County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 80th
Greene County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 80.2, 80th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $34M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Greene County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 80.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 80th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $14M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.25 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 18.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $34M in expected annual loss for a population of 46K.
Beyond physical exposure, Greene County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Greene County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 14 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Greene County ranks #12 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $14M |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.25 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 18.89 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Medium | 9.70 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.45 / yr | $5M |
| Lightning | Medium | 57.42 / yr | $502K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.32 / yr | $140K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.43 / yr | $8M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.64 / yr | $3K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.01 / yr | $610K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $40K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.47 / yr | $636K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.33 / yr | $79K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Greene County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Flood (4), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Greene County?
Greene County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 80.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 80th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Greene County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $14M EAL), Ice Storm (Very High, $1M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Greene County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Greene County ranks #12 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Greene County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Greene County since 1968, most often 14 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Greene County's $34M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.