Crittenden County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 83th
Crittenden County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 83.0, 83th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $39M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Crittenden County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 83.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 83rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $969K in expected annual loss and about 1.36 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 22.58 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $39M in expected annual loss for a population of 48K.
Beyond physical exposure, Crittenden County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Crittenden County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 5 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Crittenden County ranks #11 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $18M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.36 / yr | $969K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 22.58 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 7.94 / yr | $915K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.63 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.44 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.00 / yr | $11M |
| Lightning | Medium | 59.64 / yr | $291K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $45K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 5.68 / yr | $43K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.44 / yr | $334K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.34 / yr | $505 |
| Hail | Low | 2.96 / yr | $112K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Crittenden County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Flood (4), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Crittenden County?
Crittenden County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 83.0 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 83th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Crittenden County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $18M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $969K EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Crittenden County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Crittenden County ranks #11 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Crittenden County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Crittenden County since 1973, most often 5 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Crittenden County's $39M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.