Cleburne County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 73th
Cleburne County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 72.7, 73th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $23M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Cleburne County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 72.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 73rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Cleburne County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.44 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 59.38 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.47 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $23M in expected annual loss for a population of 25K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cleburne County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Cleburne County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 12 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Cleburne County ranks #17 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.44 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 59.38 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.47 / yr | $5M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $207K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.04 / yr | $11M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 6.79 / yr | $111K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.85 / yr | $5K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 12.74 / yr | $568K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.95 / yr | $583K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $74K |
| Hail | Low | 4.84 / yr | $193K |
| Drought | Low | 7.76 / yr | $27K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.37 / yr | $344K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cleburne County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (12), Severe Ice Storm (3), Hurricane (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms,Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
| December 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cleburne County?
Cleburne County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 72.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 73th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cleburne County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cleburne County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Cleburne County ranks #17 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cleburne County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Cleburne County since 1976, most often 12 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cleburne County's $23M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.