Johnson County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 58th
Johnson County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 58.1, 58th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Johnson County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 58.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 58th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.58 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 15.61 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.44 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 26K.
Beyond physical exposure, Johnson County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Johnson County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 9 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Johnson County ranks #35 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.58 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 15.61 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.44 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | Medium | 60.39 / yr | $444K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $535K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $102K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.92 / yr | $3K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.12 / yr | $80K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.57 / yr | $7M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.16 / yr | $530K |
| Hail | Low | 5.58 / yr | $173K |
| Drought | Low | 11.68 / yr | $82K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.16 / yr | $537K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $17K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Johnson County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2014 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| July 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Johnson County?
Johnson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 58.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 58th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Johnson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $1M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Johnson County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Johnson County ranks #35 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Johnson County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Johnson County since 1972, most often 9 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Johnson County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.