Hot Spring County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 56th
Hot Spring County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 55.5, 56th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Hot Spring County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 55.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 56th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Hot Spring County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $965K in expected annual loss and about 1.13 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $717K in expected annual loss and about 64.17 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 3.33 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 33K.
Beyond physical exposure, Hot Spring County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Hot Spring County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1982, including 8 for severe storm events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Hot Spring County ranks #37 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.13 / yr | $965K |
| Lightning | High | 64.17 / yr | $717K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.33 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Medium | 5.00 / yr | $600K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 18.11 / yr | $984K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $924K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.40 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.58 / yr | $2K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.82 / yr | $6M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 4.05 / yr | $57K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $47K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $76K |
| Drought | Very Low | 10.81 / yr | $11K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.79 / yr | $110K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Hot Spring County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1982, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Hurricane (3), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2013 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Hot Spring County?
Hot Spring County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 55.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 56th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Hot Spring County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $965K EAL), Lightning (High, $717K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Hot Spring County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Hot Spring County ranks #37 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Hot Spring County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Hot Spring County since 1982, most often 8 for severe storm events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Hot Spring County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.