Yell County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 59th
Yell County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 58.9, 59th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $15M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Yell County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 58.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 59th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $640K in expected annual loss and about 0.99 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $700K in expected annual loss and about 62.19 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.65 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $15M in expected annual loss for a population of 20K.
Beyond physical exposure, Yell County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Yell County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 7 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Yell County ranks #34 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 0.99 / yr | $640K |
| Lightning | High | 62.19 / yr | $700K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.65 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 16.80 / yr | $736K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $111K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $483K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 3.25 / yr | $8M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.11 / yr | $581K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.04 / yr | $66K |
| Hail | Low | 5.73 / yr | $255K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.91 / yr | $1K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $45K |
| Drought | Low | 13.74 / yr | $70K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.11 / yr | $453K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Yell County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Yell County?
Yell County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 58.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 59th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Yell County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $640K EAL), Lightning (High, $700K EAL), Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Yell County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Yell County ranks #34 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Yell County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Yell County since 1969, most often 7 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Yell County's $15M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.