Conway County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 57th
Conway County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 56.6, 57th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Conway County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 56.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 57th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.27 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.43 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 21K.
Beyond physical exposure, Conway County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Conway County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 14 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Conway County ranks #36 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.27 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.43 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $183K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 17.21 / yr | $679K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.45 / yr | $639K |
| Lightning | Medium | 61.10 / yr | $282K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 5.68 / yr | $73K |
| Drought | Low | 10.11 / yr | $221K |
| Hail | Low | 5.44 / yr | $242K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.40 / yr | $1K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $66K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.79 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.11 / yr | $414K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Conway County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Flood (5), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
| December 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 29 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Conway County?
Conway County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 56.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 57th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Conway County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Conway County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Conway County ranks #36 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Conway County had?
FEMA records 29 federal disaster declarations for Conway County since 1968, most often 14 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Conway County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.