Phillips County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 62th
Phillips County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 61.7, 62th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Phillips County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 61.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 62nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Phillips County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.46 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $706K in expected annual loss and about 23.26 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 17K.
Beyond physical exposure, Phillips County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Phillips County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 7 for severe storm events and 3 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Phillips County ranks #33 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $5M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.46 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 23.26 / yr | $706K |
| Drought | Medium | 8.76 / yr | $424K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.81 / yr | $142K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.64 / yr | $602K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $99K |
| Hail | Low | 2.71 / yr | $190K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.23 / yr | $1K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.21 / yr | $568K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.61 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | Low | 60.29 / yr | $99K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 4.32 / yr | $18K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Phillips County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Tornado (3), Hurricane (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| July 2020 | Tornado | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Phillips County?
Phillips County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 61.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 62th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Phillips County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $5M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $2M EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $706K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Phillips County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Phillips County ranks #33 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Phillips County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Phillips County since 1968, most often 7 for severe storm events and 3 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Phillips County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.