Union County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 54th
Union County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 53.9, 54th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Union County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 53.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 54th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Union County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.26 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 19.32 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $882K in expected annual loss and about 3.95 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 39K.
Beyond physical exposure, Union County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Union County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 6 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Union County ranks #39 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.26 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 19.32 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.95 / yr | $882K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $930K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.73 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Medium | 64.88 / yr | $292K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $139K |
| Hail | Low | 3.91 / yr | $230K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.32 / yr | $5M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.31 / yr | $889 |
| Drought | Low | 24.65 / yr | $22K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 3.74 / yr | $20K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.63 / yr | $176K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Union County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Severe Storm (5), Hurricane (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| March 2001 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Union County?
Union County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 53.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 54th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Union County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $1M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $882K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Union County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Union County ranks #39 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Union County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Union County since 1968, most often 6 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Union County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.