Ashley County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 54th
Ashley County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 53.9, 54th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Ashley County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 53.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 54th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $434K in expected annual loss and about 1.08 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $651K in expected annual loss and about 17.54 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 19K.
Beyond physical exposure, Ashley County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Ashley County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 3 for severe storm events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Ashley County ranks #38 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.08 / yr | $434K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 17.54 / yr | $651K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 18.95 / yr | $929K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.69 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Low | 3.29 / yr | $362K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $235K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.79 / yr | $5M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.91 / yr | $363K |
| Lightning | Low | 64.40 / yr | $99K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.05 / yr | $409K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $55 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 3.11 / yr | $8K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Ashley County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (3), Hurricane (3), Tornado (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2009 | Tornado | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Hurricane Gustav |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 2002 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ashley County?
Ashley County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 53.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 54th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ashley County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $434K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL), Drought (Medium, $651K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ashley County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Ashley County ranks #38 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Ashley County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Ashley County since 1973, most often 3 for severe storm events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ashley County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.