Jefferson County
Arkansas — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 85th
Jefferson County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 85.2, 85th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $37M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.36 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 2.80 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $11M |
| Tornado | High | 0.64 / yr | $6M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 18.95 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 60.01 / yr | $652K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.36 / yr | $12M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 4.11 / yr | $125K |
| Hail | Medium | 4.32 / yr | $498K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $236K |
| Drought | Low | 8.08 / yr | $224K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $48K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $736 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.84 / yr | $483K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Jefferson County?
Jefferson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 85.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 85th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Jefferson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $11M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Jefferson County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Jefferson County ranks #10 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Jefferson County's $37M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.