Jefferson County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 85th
Jefferson County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 85.2, 85th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $37M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Jefferson County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 85.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 85th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.36 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 2.80 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $11M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $37M in expected annual loss for a population of 67K.
Beyond physical exposure, Jefferson County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
History supports the rating: Jefferson County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 9 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Jefferson County ranks #10 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.36 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 2.80 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $11M |
| Tornado | High | 0.64 / yr | $6M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 18.95 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 60.01 / yr | $652K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.36 / yr | $12M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 4.11 / yr | $125K |
| Hail | Medium | 4.32 / yr | $498K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $236K |
| Drought | Low | 8.08 / yr | $224K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $48K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $736 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.84 / yr | $483K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Jefferson County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (7), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| July 2020 | Tornado | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Jefferson County?
Jefferson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 85.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 85th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Jefferson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $11M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Jefferson County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Jefferson County ranks #10 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Jefferson County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Jefferson County since 1973, most often 9 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Jefferson County's $37M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.