Crawford County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR

Low

Composite Risk Score

71.6

National percentile: 72th

Crawford County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 71.6, 72th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $30M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Overall natural disaster risk in Crawford County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 71.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 72nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.81 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 23.95 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $30M in expected annual loss for a population of 60K.

Beyond physical exposure, Crawford County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.

History supports the rating: Crawford County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 9 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.

Among 75 Arkansas counties, Crawford County ranks #21 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $30M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Low Capacity to recover
Population 60K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

High $2M/yr
Medium $5M/yr
Medium $2M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Ice Storm High 1.81 / yr$2M
Heat Wave Medium 23.95 / yr$5M
Wildfire Medium 0.01 / yr$2M
Landslide Medium 0.64 / yr$48K
Tornado Medium 0.46 / yr$4M
Winter Weather Medium 7.84 / yr$207K
Lightning Medium 60.61 / yr$655K
Riverine Flood Low 3.00 / yr$13M
Drought Medium 14.51 / yr$490K
Earthquake Low 0.00 / yr$656K
Cold Wave Low 1.05 / yr$2M
Hail Low 6.38 / yr$421K
Hurricane Very Low 0.02 / yr$40K
Strong Wind Low 5.19 / yr$428K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Crawford County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (4).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
January 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
April 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
August 2020HurricaneHurricane Laura
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
June 2019FloodSevere Storms and Flooding
May 2019FloodSevere Storms and Flooding
February 2016Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
June 2015Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
January 2014Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storm

Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Crawford County?

Crawford County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 71.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 72th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Crawford County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $2M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $5M EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Crawford County compare to other Arkansas counties?

Crawford County ranks #21 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Crawford County had?

FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Crawford County since 1968, most often 9 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Crawford County's $30M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.