Baxter County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 72th
Baxter County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 72.3, 72th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $21M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Baxter County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 72.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 72nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Baxter County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 1.99 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.41 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.34 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $21M in expected annual loss for a population of 42K.
Beyond physical exposure, Baxter County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Baxter County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 10 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Baxter County ranks #19 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.99 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.41 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.34 / yr | $4M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.43 / yr | $15K |
| Lightning | Medium | 56.74 / yr | $512K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 8.79 / yr | $139K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 9.42 / yr | $824K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.37 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $136K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.14 / yr | $7M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $15K |
| Hail | Low | 5.11 / yr | $97K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 12.74 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Baxter County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Severe Ice Storm (3), Hurricane (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
| February 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Baxter County?
Baxter County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 72.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 72th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Baxter County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $3M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Baxter County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Baxter County ranks #19 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Baxter County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Baxter County since 1969, most often 10 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Baxter County's $21M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.