Clay County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 72th
Clay County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 71.6, 72th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $21M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Clay County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 71.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 72nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 9.67 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $931K in expected annual loss and about 1.17 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $21M in expected annual loss for a population of 15K.
Beyond physical exposure, Clay County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Clay County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 13 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Clay County ranks #20 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 9.67 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $8M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.17 / yr | $931K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 18.68 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.47 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | Medium | 57.73 / yr | $498K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.50 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.32 / yr | $84K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.10 / yr | $396K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.64 / yr | $1K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $50K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.07 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.21 / yr | $77K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Clay County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (13), Flood (5), Hurricane (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms,Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Clay County?
Clay County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 71.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 72th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Clay County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $2M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $8M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $931K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Clay County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Clay County ranks #20 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Clay County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Clay County since 1969, most often 13 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Clay County's $21M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.