Independence County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 69th
Independence County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 69.1, 69th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $24M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Independence County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 69.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 69th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.34 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.58 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $24M in expected annual loss for a population of 38K.
Beyond physical exposure, Independence County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Independence County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 17 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Independence County ranks #23 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.34 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $5M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.58 / yr | $6M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 14.05 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.74 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $155K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.32 / yr | $104K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.00 / yr | $3K |
| Lightning | Medium | 58.12 / yr | $296K |
| Drought | Low | 7.00 / yr | $227K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.32 / yr | $7M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $66K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.38 / yr | $471K |
| Hail | Low | 4.05 / yr | $186K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Independence County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (17), Severe Ice Storm (3), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms,Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 31 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Independence County?
Independence County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 69.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 69th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Independence County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $5M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $6M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Independence County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Independence County ranks #23 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Independence County had?
FEMA records 31 federal disaster declarations for Independence County since 1968, most often 17 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Independence County's $24M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.