Miller County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR

Low

Composite Risk Score

70.8

National percentile: 71th

Miller County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 70.8, 71th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Miller County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 70.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 71st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 5.29 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.76 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 5.35 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 43K.

Beyond physical exposure, Miller County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

The federal record bears this out: Miller County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 9 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.

Among 75 Arkansas counties, Miller County ranks #22 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $20M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Low Capacity to recover
Population 43K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

High $4M/yr
Very High $2M/yr
High $1M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Hail High 5.29 / yr$4M
Ice Storm Very High 0.76 / yr$2M
Strong Wind High 5.35 / yr$1M
Heat Wave Medium 19.05 / yr$2M
Tornado Medium 0.49 / yr$4M
Lightning Medium 62.20 / yr$512K
Drought Medium 28.50 / yr$641K
Earthquake Low 0.00 / yr$504K
Wildfire Low 0.00 / yr$79K
Winter Weather Medium 4.21 / yr$69K
Riverine Flood Low 1.29 / yr$6M
Hurricane Very Low 0.03 / yr$57K
Cold Wave Low 0.95 / yr$430K
Landslide Very Low 0.17 / yr$376
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Miller County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (3), Hurricane (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
January 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
May 2025FloodSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
April 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
August 2020HurricaneHurricane Laura
April 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
June 2015Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
February 2010Severe StormSevere Storms and Flooding
June 2009Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
April 2009TornadoSevere Storms and Tornadoes

Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Miller County?

Miller County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 70.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 71th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Miller County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $4M EAL), Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Miller County compare to other Arkansas counties?

Miller County ranks #22 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Miller County had?

FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Miller County since 1968, most often 9 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Miller County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.