Miller County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 71th
Miller County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 70.8, 71th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Miller County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 70.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 71st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 5.29 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.76 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 5.35 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 43K.
Beyond physical exposure, Miller County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Miller County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 9 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Miller County ranks #22 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 5.29 / yr | $4M |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 0.76 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 5.35 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 19.05 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.49 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | Medium | 62.20 / yr | $512K |
| Drought | Medium | 28.50 / yr | $641K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $504K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $79K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 4.21 / yr | $69K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.29 / yr | $6M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $57K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.95 / yr | $430K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $376 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Miller County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (3), Hurricane (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2009 | Tornado | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Miller County?
Miller County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 70.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 71th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Miller County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $4M EAL), Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Miller County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Miller County ranks #22 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Miller County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Miller County since 1968, most often 9 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Miller County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.