Pinal County, Arizona Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AZ
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 94th
Pinal County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 93.8, 94th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $137M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Pinal County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 93.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 94th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Pinal County's expected losses come from heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $24M in expected annual loss and about 12.73 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $12M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 41.86 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $137M in expected annual loss for a population of 424K.
Beyond physical exposure, Pinal County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Pinal County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including 10 for fire events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Cody Fire (fire), declared in May 2025.
Among 15 Arizona counties, Pinal County ranks #5 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | High | 12.73 / yr | $24M |
| Wildfire | High | 0.00 / yr | $12M |
| Lightning | Very High | 41.86 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.89 / yr | $92M |
| Drought | High | 55.02 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Medium | 0.39 / yr | $954K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.77 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.05 / yr | $1K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.38 / yr | $712K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $69 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $5K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 1.42 / yr | $12K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Pinal County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1966, most recently Cody Fire in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (10), Flood (6), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Fire | Cody Fire |
| July 2024 | Fire | Shake Fire |
| May 2024 | Fire | Simmons Fire |
| June 2021 | Fire | Telegraph Fire |
| April 2021 | Fire | Margo Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2017 | Fire | Roach Fire |
| June 2015 | Fire | Kearny River Fire |
| September 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pinal County?
Pinal County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 93.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 94th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Pinal County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (High, $24M EAL), Wildfire (High, $12M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Pinal County compare to other Arizona counties?
Pinal County ranks #5 of 15 Arizona counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Pinal County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Pinal County since 1966, most often 10 for fire events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Cody Fire, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pinal County's $137M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.