Cochise County, Arizona Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AZ
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 93th
Cochise County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 92.8, 93th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $91M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Cochise County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 92.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 93rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Cochise County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $19M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $22M in expected annual loss and about 2.44 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 56.22 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $91M in expected annual loss for a population of 125K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cochise County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Cochise County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 5 for fire events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 15 Arizona counties, Cochise County ranks #7 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $19M |
| Heat Wave | High | 2.44 / yr | $22M |
| Lightning | Very High | 56.22 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 6.21 / yr | $44M |
| Drought | Medium | 76.45 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.58 / yr | $682K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.38 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $557 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $14K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 4.31 / yr | $13K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $37K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $50K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $11K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cochise County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Fire (5), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Fire | Lizard Fire |
| June 2011 | Fire | Monument Fire |
| May 2011 | Fire | Horseshoe Two Fire |
| May 2009 | Fire | Mule Pass Fire |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2003 | Fire | Ash Fire |
| October 2000 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 1999 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, High Winds |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cochise County?
Cochise County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 92.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 93th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cochise County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $19M EAL), Heat Wave (High, $22M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cochise County compare to other Arizona counties?
Cochise County ranks #7 of 15 Arizona counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cochise County had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Cochise County since 1970, most often 5 for fire events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cochise County's $91M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.