Yavapai County, Arizona Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AZ
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 94th
Yavapai County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 93.7, 94th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $108M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Yavapai County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 93.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 94th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $29M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 47.87 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $70M in expected annual loss and about 7.25 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $108M in expected annual loss for a population of 236K.
Beyond physical exposure, Yavapai County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Yavapai County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 13 for fire events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Crooks Fire (fire), declared in April 2022.
Among 15 Arizona counties, Yavapai County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $29M |
| Lightning | Very High | 47.87 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 7.25 / yr | $70M |
| Winter Weather | High | 4.46 / yr | $461K |
| Hail | Medium | 0.43 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 3.82 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 4.41 / yr | $5K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $16 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $560 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.56 / yr | $323K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.51 / yr | $451K |
| Drought | Very Low | 67.67 / yr | $17K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Yavapai County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Crooks Fire in April 2022. Most frequent causes: Fire (13), Flood (5), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2022 | Fire | Crooks Fire |
| May 2021 | Fire | Spur Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2018 | Fire | 89 East Fire |
| June 2017 | Fire | Goodwin Fire |
| June 2016 | Fire | Tenderfoot Fire |
| June 2013 | Fire | Yarnell Hill Fire |
| June 2013 | Fire | Doce Fire |
| March 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Yavapai County?
Yavapai County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 93.7 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 94th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Yavapai County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $29M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $3M EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $70M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Yavapai County compare to other Arizona counties?
Yavapai County ranks #6 of 15 Arizona counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Yavapai County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Yavapai County since 1977, most often 13 for fire events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Crooks Fire, declared in April 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Yavapai County's $108M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.