Pima County

Arizona — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment

High

Composite Risk Score

99.1

National percentile: 99th

Pima County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 99.1, 99th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $531M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Expected Annual Loss $531M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Medium Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Low Capacity to recover
Population 1.04M Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Heat Wave
Very High $133M/yr
Wildfire
High $38M/yr
Riverine Flood
Very High $347M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Heat Wave Very High 8.09 / yr $133M
Wildfire High 0.00 / yr $38M
Riverine Flood Very High 12.82 / yr $347M
Lightning Very High 42.77 / yr $3M
Hail Medium 0.24 / yr $2M
Earthquake Medium 0.01 / yr $6M
Strong Wind Medium 0.79 / yr $1M
Winter Weather Medium 1.80 / yr $200K
Drought Medium 57.26 / yr $459K
Landslide Very Low 2.14 / yr $2K
Avalanche Very Low 0.01 / yr $358
Tornado Low 0.26 / yr $688K
Hurricane Very Low 0.02 / yr $5K
Cold Wave Very Low 0.00 / yr $150
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Ice Storm Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr $0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr $0

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pima County?

Pima County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 99.1 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 99th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Pima County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Very High, $133M EAL), Wildfire (High, $38M EAL), Riverine Flood (Very High, $347M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Pima County compare to other Arizona counties?

Pima County ranks #2 of 15 Arizona counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pima County's $531M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.