Coconino County, Arizona Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AZ
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 94th
Coconino County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 94.2, 94th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $131M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Coconino County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 94.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 94th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 44.38 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $29M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 8.20 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $131M in expected annual loss for a population of 145K.
Beyond physical exposure, Coconino County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Coconino County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 11 for fire events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Pipeline Fire (fire), declared in June 2022.
Among 15 Arizona counties, Coconino County ranks #4 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | Very High | 44.38 / yr | $5M |
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $29M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 8.20 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Medium | 5.52 / yr | $309K |
| Riverine Flood | High | 8.04 / yr | $86M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $5M |
| Volcanic Activity | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Medium | 0.03 / yr | $457K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.03 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.47 / yr | $600K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.01 / yr | $103K |
| Hail | Low | 0.21 / yr | $296K |
| Drought | Very Low | 96.46 / yr | $11K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.81 / yr | $296K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $101K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Coconino County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Pipeline Fire in June 2022. Most frequent causes: Fire (11), Flood (5), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2022 | Fire | Pipeline Fire |
| April 2022 | Fire | Tunnel 2 Fire |
| September 2021 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Fire | Museum Fire |
| April 2018 | Fire | Tinder Fire |
| November 2014 | Fire | Slide Fire |
| October 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2010 | Fire | Shultz Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Coconino County?
Coconino County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 94.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 94th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Coconino County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (Very High, $5M EAL), Wildfire (High, $29M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Coconino County compare to other Arizona counties?
Coconino County ranks #4 of 15 Arizona counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Coconino County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Coconino County since 1970, most often 11 for fire events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Pipeline Fire, declared in June 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Coconino County's $131M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.