Gila County, Arizona Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AZ
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 90th
Gila County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 90.2, 90th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $55M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Gila County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 90.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 90th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $17M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 57.88 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $35M in expected annual loss and about 5.46 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $55M in expected annual loss for a population of 53K.
Beyond physical exposure, Gila County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Gila County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 9 for fire events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Telegraph Fire (fire), declared in June 2021.
Among 15 Arizona counties, Gila County ranks #9 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $17M |
| Lightning | High | 57.88 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 5.46 / yr | $35M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 3.55 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 6.47 / yr | $191K |
| Landslide | Low | 4.49 / yr | $8K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $278K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $801 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.78 / yr | $278K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.31 / yr | $74K |
| Drought | Very Low | 67.26 / yr | $7K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.22 / yr | $73K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $582 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $34 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Gila County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Telegraph Fire in June 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (9), Flood (7), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2021 | Fire | Telegraph Fire |
| August 2020 | Fire | Griffin Fire |
| June 2020 | Fire | Bush Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| August 2009 | Fire | Water Wheel Fire |
| September 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| July 2005 | Fire | Az-Wildfire (Edge Complex) 07-22-2005 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Gila County?
Gila County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 90.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 90th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Gila County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $17M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $35M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Gila County compare to other Arizona counties?
Gila County ranks #9 of 15 Arizona counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Gila County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Gila County since 1970, most often 9 for fire events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Telegraph Fire, declared in June 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Gila County's $55M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.