Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AK
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 93th
Kenai Peninsula Borough faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 93.0, 93th national percentile), driven primarily by avalanche and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $121M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Kenai Peninsula Borough at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 93.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 93rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Kenai Peninsula Borough's expected losses come from avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Very High risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 1.03 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at High risk — $87M in expected annual loss and about 0.19 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $285K in expected annual loss and about 133.35 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $121M in expected annual loss for a population of 59K.
Beyond physical exposure, Kenai Peninsula Borough has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Kenai Peninsula Borough has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1986, including 7 for severe storm events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Landslide (mud/landslide), declared in July 2022.
Among 30 Alaska counties, Kenai Peninsula Borough ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Avalanche | Very High | 1.03 / yr | $10M |
| Earthquake | High | 0.19 / yr | $87M |
| Landslide | Medium | 133.35 / yr | $285K |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $7M |
| Winter Weather | High | 9.18 / yr | $535K |
| Volcanic Activity | Low | 0.03 / yr | $13K |
| Tsunami | Medium | 0.30 / yr | $10M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.01 / yr | $5M |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $7K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $21K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 6.76 / yr | $47K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.14 / yr | $129K |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.39 / yr | $0 |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Kenai Peninsula Borough has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1986, most recently Landslide in July 2022. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Fire (3), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2022 | Mud/Landslide | Landslide |
| January 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2019 | Earthquake | Earthquake |
| November 2018 | Earthquake | Earthquake |
| June 2018 | Coastal Storm | Severe Storm |
| June 2015 | Fire | Card Street Fire |
| January 2014 | Flood | Flooding |
| November 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Kenai Peninsula Borough?
Kenai Peninsula Borough has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 93.0 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 93th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Kenai Peninsula Borough?
The three highest-rated hazards are Avalanche (Very High, $10M EAL), Earthquake (High, $87M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $285K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Kenai Peninsula Borough compare to other Alaska counties?
Kenai Peninsula Borough ranks #3 of 30 Alaska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Kenai Peninsula Borough had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Kenai Peninsula Borough since 1986, most often 7 for severe storm events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Landslide, declared in July 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Kenai Peninsula Borough's $121M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.