Fairbanks North Star Borough, Alaska Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AK
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 89th
Fairbanks North Star Borough faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 88.5, 89th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $101M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Fairbanks North Star Borough is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 88.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 89th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Fairbanks North Star Borough's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 11.13 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $55M in expected annual loss and about 0.08 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $101M in expected annual loss for a population of 96K.
Beyond physical exposure, Fairbanks North Star Borough has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Fairbanks North Star Borough has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 6 for fire events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Nenana Ridge Complex (fire), declared in July 2025.
Among 30 Alaska counties, Fairbanks North Star Borough ranks #4 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | High | 11.13 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.08 / yr | $55M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $13M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 17.01 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | High | 3.37 / yr | $20M |
| Avalanche | Medium | 0.03 / yr | $457K |
| Lightning | Medium | 38.58 / yr | $452K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $23 |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.01 / yr | $8M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.01 / yr | $59K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Fairbanks North Star Borough has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Nenana Ridge Complex in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (6), Severe Storm (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Fire | Nenana Ridge Complex |
| June 2025 | Fire | Himalaya Road Fire |
| August 2023 | Fire | Lost Horse Creek Fire |
| March 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Fire | Shovel Creek Fire |
| January 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Fire | Moose Mountain Fire |
| September 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Fairbanks North Star Borough?
Fairbanks North Star Borough has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 88.5 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 89th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Fairbanks North Star Borough?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (High, $3M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $55M EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $13M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Fairbanks North Star Borough compare to other Alaska counties?
Fairbanks North Star Borough ranks #4 of 30 Alaska counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Fairbanks North Star Borough had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Fairbanks North Star Borough since 1989, most often 6 for fire events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Nenana Ridge Complex, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Fairbanks North Star Borough's $101M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.