Stafford County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 65th
Stafford County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 65.0, 65th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $35M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Stafford County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 65.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 65th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 6.34 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 6.07 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.08 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $35M in expected annual loss for a population of 157K.
Beyond physical exposure, Stafford County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Stafford County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Stafford County ranks #18 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.34 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 6.07 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.08 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.82 / yr | $24M |
| Lightning | Medium | 40.18 / yr | $865K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.91 / yr | $155K |
| Hail | Low | 3.67 / yr | $600K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.36 / yr | $3K |
| Drought | Low | 2.38 / yr | $270K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.20 / yr | $2M |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 3.69 / yr | $93K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.50 / yr | $83K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.00 / yr | $154K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Stafford County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (5), Snowstorm (5), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| February 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Stafford County?
Stafford County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 65.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 65th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Stafford County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Medium, $2M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Hurricane (Low, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Stafford County compare to other Virginia counties?
Stafford County ranks #18 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Stafford County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Stafford County since 1972, most often 5 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Stafford County's $35M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.