Arlington County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 67th
Arlington County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 66.8, 67th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $38M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Arlington County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 66.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 67th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 6.30 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $381K in expected annual loss and about 9.04 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 40.91 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $38M in expected annual loss for a population of 239K.
Beyond physical exposure, Arlington County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Arlington County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Arlington County ranks #17 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 6.30 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 9.04 / yr | $381K |
| Lightning | High | 40.91 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 8.20 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.10 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.25 / yr | $23M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Low | 3.95 / yr | $639K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.55 / yr | $154K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.02 / yr | $1M |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 3.76 / yr | $34K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.25 / yr | $617K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $185 |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.47 / yr | $3K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Arlington County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (5), Snowstorm (5), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| February 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Arlington County?
Arlington County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 66.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 67th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Arlington County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $4M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $381K EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Arlington County compare to other Virginia counties?
Arlington County ranks #17 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Arlington County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Arlington County since 1972, most often 5 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Arlington County's $38M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.