Spotsylvania County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 53th
Spotsylvania County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 52.9, 53th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $25M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Spotsylvania County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 52.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 53rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $933K in expected annual loss and about 39.90 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 4.97 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $25M in expected annual loss for a population of 140K.
Beyond physical exposure, Spotsylvania County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Spotsylvania County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 5 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Spotsylvania County ranks #32 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | Medium | 39.90 / yr | $933K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.97 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.91 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.08 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.46 / yr | $16M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.32 / yr | $117K |
| Hail | Low | 3.46 / yr | $438K |
| Drought | Low | 3.53 / yr | $160K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.27 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.46 / yr | $70K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.29 / yr | $812 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 3.76 / yr | $91 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.94 / yr | $51K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Spotsylvania County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (5), Snowstorm (5), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| November 2011 | Earthquake | Earthquake |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| February 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Spotsylvania County?
Spotsylvania County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 52.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 53th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Spotsylvania County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (Medium, $933K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $2M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Spotsylvania County compare to other Virginia counties?
Spotsylvania County ranks #32 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Spotsylvania County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Spotsylvania County since 1969, most often 5 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Spotsylvania County's $25M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.