James City County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 53th
James City County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 53.3, 53th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $22M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in James City County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 53.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 53rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 2.48 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.21 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $240K in expected annual loss and about 1.36 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $22M in expected annual loss for a population of 78K.
Beyond physical exposure, James City County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: James City County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 9 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, James City County ranks #31 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 2.48 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.21 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.36 / yr | $240K |
| Lightning | Medium | 42.90 / yr | $512K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 6.26 / yr | $782K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $608K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.57 / yr | $12M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 4.43 / yr | $117K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 3.69 / yr | $275K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $2K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.10 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $48K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.78 / yr | $559K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.47 / yr | $733K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.05 / yr | $168K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
James City County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (9), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2018 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| September 2006 | Severe Storm | Tropical Depression Ernesto, Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for James City County?
James City County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 53.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 53th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in James City County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $2M EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $3M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $240K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does James City County compare to other Virginia counties?
James City County ranks #31 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has James City County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for James City County since 1972, most often 9 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. James City County's $22M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.