Manassas City, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 17th
Manassas City faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 16.6, 17th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Manassas City is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 16.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 17th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Manassas City's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $417K in expected annual loss and about 0.08 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $626K in expected annual loss and about 5.79 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Very Low risk — $436K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 43K.
Beyond physical exposure, Manassas City has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Manassas City has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including 5 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Manassas City ranks #91 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Low | 0.08 / yr | $417K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.79 / yr | $626K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $436K |
| Lightning | Low | 41.04 / yr | $320K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 7.07 / yr | $602K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.53 / yr | $56K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.57 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.01 / yr | $533K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.77 / yr | $116K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.54 / yr | $14K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.37 / yr | $84K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $333 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 1.39 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Manassas City has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1993, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (5), Snowstorm (5), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| February 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Manassas City?
Manassas City has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 16.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 17th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Manassas City?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Low, $417K EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $626K EAL), Earthquake (Very Low, $436K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Manassas City compare to other Virginia counties?
Manassas City ranks #91 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Manassas City had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Manassas City since 1993, most often 5 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Manassas City's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.