Winchester City, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 17th
Winchester City faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 16.9, 17th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Winchester City carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 16.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 17th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $553K in expected annual loss and about 0.05 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $503K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Low risk — $60K in expected annual loss and about 13.16 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 28K.
Beyond physical exposure, Winchester City has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Winchester City has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 4 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Winchester City ranks #89 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Low | 0.05 / yr | $553K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $503K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 13.16 / yr | $60K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.26 / yr | $331K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.70 / yr | $436K |
| Hail | Low | 2.75 / yr | $182K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.43 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | Low | 37.47 / yr | $99K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $347K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.33 / yr | $6K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $34 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.95 / yr | $76K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 3.86 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Winchester City has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (4), Snowstorm (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| September 2003 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isabel |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Winchester City?
Winchester City has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 16.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 17th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Winchester City?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Low, $553K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $503K EAL), Winter Weather (Low, $60K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Winchester City compare to other Virginia counties?
Winchester City ranks #89 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Winchester City had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Winchester City since 1972, most often 4 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Winchester City's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.