Goochland County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 16th
Goochland County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 15.5, 16th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Goochland County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 15.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 16th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Goochland County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $701K in expected annual loss and about 6.28 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $281K in expected annual loss and about 0.09 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 25K.
Beyond physical exposure, Goochland County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Goochland County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 6 for hurricane events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Goochland County ranks #93 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Medium | 6.28 / yr | $701K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.09 / yr | $281K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.77 / yr | $584K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.41 / yr | $501 |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.94 / yr | $49K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.89 / yr | $162K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | Low | 40.88 / yr | $119K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $471K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.62 / yr | $56K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 5.85 / yr | $8K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.69 / yr | $12K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Goochland County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (6), Severe Storm (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| May 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| November 2011 | Earthquake | Earthquake |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| September 2003 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isabel |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Goochland County?
Goochland County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 15.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 16th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Goochland County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $1M EAL), Drought (Medium, $701K EAL), Hurricane (Low, $281K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Goochland County compare to other Virginia counties?
Goochland County ranks #93 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Goochland County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Goochland County since 1969, most often 6 for hurricane events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Goochland County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.