Madison County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 8th
Madison County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 8.4, 8th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Madison County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 8.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 8th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $658K in expected annual loss and about 0.08 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $263K in expected annual loss and about 3.75 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Very Low risk — $789 in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 14K.
Beyond physical exposure, Madison County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Madison County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 6 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Madison County ranks #111 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Low | 0.08 / yr | $658K |
| Drought | Low | 3.75 / yr | $263K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $789 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.73 / yr | $1K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $215K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $28K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.51 / yr | $353K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.77 / yr | $124K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 40.82 / yr | $78K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.00 / yr | $77K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 2.61 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $131K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 10.60 / yr | $12K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.95 / yr | $80K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.70 / yr | $5K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Madison County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (6), Severe Storm (5), Snowstorm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| October 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| March 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Madison County?
Madison County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 8.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 8th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Madison County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Low, $658K EAL), Drought (Low, $263K EAL), Avalanche (Very Low, $789 EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Madison County compare to other Virginia counties?
Madison County ranks #111 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Madison County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Madison County since 1972, most often 6 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Madison County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.