Fredericksburg City, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 9th
Fredericksburg City faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 8.7, 9th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Fredericksburg City carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 8.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 9th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $543K in expected annual loss and about 40.09 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Very Low risk — $252K in expected annual loss and about 0.08 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Very Low risk — $629K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 28K.
Beyond physical exposure, Fredericksburg City has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Fredericksburg City has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 6 for snowstorm events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Fredericksburg City ranks #109 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | Medium | 40.09 / yr | $543K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $252K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $629K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.93 / yr | $343K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.00 / yr | $573K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $404K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.48 / yr | $116K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.71 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 7.34 / yr | $27K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $12 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.45 / yr | $17K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $23 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.94 / yr | $20K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 3.10 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Fredericksburg City has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (6), Hurricane (5), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| November 2011 | Earthquake | Earthquake |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Fredericksburg City?
Fredericksburg City has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 8.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 9th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Fredericksburg City?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (Medium, $543K EAL), Hurricane (Very Low, $252K EAL), Earthquake (Very Low, $629K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Fredericksburg City compare to other Virginia counties?
Fredericksburg City ranks #109 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Fredericksburg City had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Fredericksburg City since 1972, most often 6 for snowstorm events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Fredericksburg City's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.