Fauquier County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 48th
Fauquier County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 47.7, 48th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $22M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Fauquier County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 47.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 48th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Fauquier County's expected losses come from lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $999K in expected annual loss and about 40.45 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.09 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 2.68 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $22M in expected annual loss for a population of 73K.
Beyond physical exposure, Fauquier County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Fauquier County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 6 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Fauquier County ranks #39 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | Medium | 40.45 / yr | $999K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.09 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.68 / yr | $16M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.85 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.47 / yr | $965K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $710K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.60 / yr | $3K |
| Hail | Low | 3.67 / yr | $372K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.38 / yr | $91K |
| Drought | Low | 2.93 / yr | $149K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $28K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.64 / yr | $34K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.40 / yr | $248K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.60 / yr | $156K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $8 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Fauquier County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (6), Severe Storm (5), Snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Fauquier County?
Fauquier County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 47.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 48th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Fauquier County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (Medium, $999K EAL), Hurricane (Low, $1M EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $16M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Fauquier County compare to other Virginia counties?
Fauquier County ranks #39 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Fauquier County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Fauquier County since 1972, most often 6 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Fauquier County's $22M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.