Montgomery County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 48th
Montgomery County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 47.5, 48th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $17M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Montgomery County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 47.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 48th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Montgomery County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $70K in expected annual loss and about 1.01 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $17M in expected annual loss for a population of 100K.
Beyond physical exposure, Montgomery County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Montgomery County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 6 for severe storm events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Montgomery County ranks #40 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.01 / yr | $70K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 3.89 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 10.72 / yr | $137K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.21 / yr | $11M |
| Lightning | Medium | 44.25 / yr | $348K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $165K |
| Drought | Low | 2.36 / yr | $247K |
| Hail | Low | 3.98 / yr | $220K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.80 / yr | $457K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $24K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.43 / yr | $28K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $363K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $13 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Montgomery County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Hurricane (5), Snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| October 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2018 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Montgomery County?
Montgomery County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 47.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 48th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Montgomery County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $70K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $1M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Montgomery County compare to other Virginia counties?
Montgomery County ranks #40 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Montgomery County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Montgomery County since 1972, most often 6 for severe storm events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Montgomery County's $17M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.