Wayne County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 56th
Wayne County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 56.3, 56th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $17M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Wayne County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 56.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 56th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Wayne County's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.03 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $8K in expected annual loss and about 0.79 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 1.32 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $17M in expected annual loss for a population of 51K.
Beyond physical exposure, Wayne County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Wayne County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 6 for severe storm events and 6 for hurricane events. The most recent was Tropical Storm Debby (tropical storm), declared in September 2024.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Wayne County ranks #48 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.79 / yr | $8K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.32 / yr | $13M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.07 / yr | $755K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.38 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 16.79 / yr | $71K |
| Lightning | Low | 30.89 / yr | $238K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $223K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.54 / yr | $51K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $141 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.50 / yr | $138K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.22 / yr | $480K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.11 / yr | $61K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Wayne County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Tropical Storm Debby in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Hurricane (6), Flood (6).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Flood | Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| February 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Wayne County?
Wayne County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 56.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 56th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Wayne County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Low, $1M EAL), Landslide (Low, $8K EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $13M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Wayne County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Wayne County ranks #48 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Wayne County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Wayne County since 1965, most often 6 for severe storm events and 6 for hurricane events. The most recent was Tropical Storm Debby, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Wayne County's $17M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.