Carbon County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 59th
Carbon County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 59.4, 59th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $22M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Carbon County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 59.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 59th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 34.04 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.89 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $202K in expected annual loss and about 17.84 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $22M in expected annual loss for a population of 65K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carbon County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Carbon County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 4 for hurricane events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Carbon County ranks #46 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 34.04 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 1.89 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 17.84 / yr | $202K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.35 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 3.21 / yr | $3M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.05 / yr | $807K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.30 / yr | $7K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.93 / yr | $12M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.75 / yr | $90K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $238K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $30K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.16 / yr | $799K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.13 / yr | $54K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carbon County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (4), Flood (4), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Flood | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| June 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Frances |
| March 2003 | Severe Storm | Snow |
| January 1996 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carbon County?
Carbon County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 59.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 59th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carbon County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $202K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carbon County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Carbon County ranks #46 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carbon County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Carbon County since 1965, most often 4 for hurricane events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carbon County's $22M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.