Jefferson County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 58th
Jefferson County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 57.9, 58th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Jefferson County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 57.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 58th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Jefferson County's expected losses come from lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $717K in expected annual loss and about 37.87 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $150K in expected annual loss and about 16.11 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $11K in expected annual loss and about 0.71 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 44K.
Beyond physical exposure, Jefferson County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Jefferson County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for flood events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Jefferson County ranks #47 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 37.87 / yr | $717K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 16.11 / yr | $150K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.71 / yr | $11K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.96 / yr | $11M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $404K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.26 / yr | $369K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.84 / yr | $587K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $81K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.20 / yr | $386K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.36 / yr | $18K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.00 / yr | $43K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $14 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.47 / yr | $22K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Jefferson County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Hurricane (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Frances |
| July 1996 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| January 1996 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 1993 | Snowstorm | Severe Snowfall & Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Jefferson County?
Jefferson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 57.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 58th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Jefferson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $717K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $150K EAL), Landslide (Low, $11K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Jefferson County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Jefferson County ranks #47 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Jefferson County had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Jefferson County since 1972, most often 5 for flood events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Jefferson County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.