Jefferson County
Pennsylvania — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 58th
Jefferson County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 57.9, 58th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 37.87 / yr | $717K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 16.11 / yr | $150K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.71 / yr | $11K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.96 / yr | $11M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $404K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.26 / yr | $369K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.84 / yr | $587K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $81K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.20 / yr | $386K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.36 / yr | $18K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.00 / yr | $43K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $14 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.47 / yr | $22K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Jefferson County?
Jefferson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 57.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 58th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Jefferson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $717K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $150K EAL), Landslide (Low, $11K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Jefferson County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Jefferson County ranks #47 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Jefferson County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.